Referendum or Resistance? Zelensky’s Impossible Choice

President Volodymyr Zelensky finds himself at a historic crossroads as U.S. pressure for a peace deal intensifies. Following his meetings in Berlin, Zelensky hinted that any agreement involving territorial concessions—specifically the Donbas—might be put to a national referendum. This “democratic escape hatch” would allow Zelensky to shift the burden of a painful decision onto the Ukrainian people, but it also risks tearing the country apart if the vote is close.
Public opinion in Ukraine is currently a major barrier to the Trump-brokered deal. Recent data suggests that over 60% of the population is against any “land for peace” trade. For many who have lost family members in the struggle for the east, giving up the Donbas feels like a betrayal of the sacrifice made by the armed forces. Zelensky knows that signing a deal without public support could lead to internal instability or even a coup.
The U.S. is trying to sweeten the deal by offering “Article 5-like” security guarantees and a path to European Union membership. The hope is that the promise of a secure, prosperous future in the West will outweigh the pain of losing the occupied east. Trump’s team is betting that “exhaustion” among the Ukrainian populace will eventually lead to a “yes” vote, but the fierce resistance in the Donbas suggests that many are still willing to fight for every inch of ground.
In Moscow, the idea of a referendum is viewed with deep suspicion. The Kremlin has already held its own “referendums” in the occupied territories—widely condemned as shams by the West—and they have no desire to see their “historic lands” subjected to a genuine, internationally monitored vote. Russia wants a “fait accompli,” not a democratic debate that could challenge their narrative of “liberation.”
The Miami talks will likely touch upon this internal Ukrainian dynamic. If Kushner and Witkoff can convince Zelensky that the U.S. will provide the weapons and sanctions needed to win if Russia rejects a “fair deal,” Zelensky might feel more comfortable putting the current proposal to his people. But for now, the choice between a compromised peace and an endless war remains the most difficult one any leader could face.