A War of Attrition: Parties Settle In for a Long and Damaging Shutdown

The government shutdown has entered a new phase, transforming from a short-term crisis into a calculated war of attrition. Both Democratic and Republican leaders appear to be settling in for a long, damaging fight, betting that the other side will eventually break under the mounting political and public pressure. This strategy was evident on Wednesday as the Senate rejected competing bills, signaling no desire for a quick truce.
The Democratic strategy is to wear down Republican opposition by tying the shutdown to the popular issue of healthcare. They believe that as the shutdown’s negative impacts—like airport delays and missed military paychecks—grow, the public will increasingly blame the GOP for refusing to negotiate on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits for 20 million Americans.
The Republican strategy is the mirror image. They aim to inflict enough shutdown-related pain that Democrats are forced to abandon their healthcare demands. By holding firm for a “clean” funding bill, Speaker Mike Johnson is betting that voters will ultimately fault Democrats for holding the government hostage to what he frames as a partisan agenda.
The casualties in this war are the federal workers and their families, who are facing the loss of their income, and the American public, which must deal with the disruption of government services. These groups are the terrain over which the political battle is being fought.
In a war of attrition, victory is not won through brilliant maneuvering but through endurance and the ability to absorb pain. The failed Senate votes indicate that both armies are still well-supplied and dug into their trenches, suggesting this political siege is far from over.