China’s Rise Dominates Australian Minds, US Trust at Historic Low

Australians overwhelmingly anticipate China becoming the world’s preeminent power by 2035, new research reveals, while trust in the United States has plummeted to its lowest point since polling began. These findings reflect a significant recalibration of Australia’s geopolitical outlook.
Only 36% of Australians now express trust in the US to act responsibly on the global stage, a drastic 20-point fall from 2024. This marks the smallest proportion recorded in nearly two decades of surveys. Confidence in the current US President’s international approach is particularly low, standing in stark contrast to the higher approval seen for his predecessor. Meanwhile, confidence in the Chinese leader has edged up, leading to an even split on who is considered a more reliable partner.
For the first time since 2020, Australians are equally inclined to perceive China as an economic partner and a security threat. However, a notable segment of the population continues to harbor distrust, believing China will pose a military threat to Australia within the next two decades. Despite the decline in trust in the US, a majority still believes the US would come to Australia’s defense in an attack, though this belief has weakened.
This nuanced public opinion suggests Australians are able to separate the perceived instability of current US foreign policy from the enduring strength of the military alliance. The significant narrowing of the trust gap between Australia’s key security ally and China is a remarkable and noteworthy development, signaling evolving regional dynamics.